HPL ELECTRIC & POWER

Limited | Gurugram, Haryana

Appliance Load Disaggregation

AI-Powered NILM Technology

AI CAPABILITY PHASE 2 SCOPE ← Back to Proposal
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Phase 2 Scope - To Be Implemented After Core MDM

Based on Mar 24, 2026 discussion with HPL: NILM/Appliance Load Disaggregation will be implemented in Phase 2 after the core MDM platform is deployed and operational. This allows HPL to focus on the essential MDM + field operations capabilities first within the 6-month timeline.

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What is Appliance Load Disaggregation?

Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is an AI technique that analyzes aggregate power consumption from a single smart meter to identify and separate the energy usage of individual appliances — without requiring separate sensors on each device.

Using only the data HPL smart meters already collect (voltage, current, power factor, harmonics), AI models can detect: AC units, refrigerators, water heaters, fans, TVs, washing machines, and more.

💻 View Interactive Mockup →

✓ Yes, This is Achievable with Meter Data Alone

What HPL Meters Already Capture

  • Active Power (kW) — Total load at any instant
  • Reactive Power (kVAR) — Motor/compressor signatures
  • Power Factor — Distinguishes resistive vs inductive loads
  • Voltage & Current — Waveform patterns
  • Harmonics (THD) — Electronic device fingerprints
  • 15/30-min Interval Data — Usage patterns over time

How AI Disaggregates Appliances

1
Signature Detection: Each appliance has a unique power "fingerprint"
2
Pattern Learning: ML models learn ON/OFF transitions and steady-state patterns
3
Disaggregation: AI separates total consumption into appliance-level usage
4
Insights: Consumer sees "Your AC used 45% of energy this month"

01 Detectable Appliances & Accuracy

❄
Air Conditioner
92-95%
Detection Accuracy

Compressor cycles, high reactive power signature

🌡
Water Heater
90-93%
Detection Accuracy

High resistive load, predictable ON/OFF pattern

🧊
Refrigerator
88-92%
Detection Accuracy

Cyclic compressor, always-on baseline

🌀
Ceiling Fan
85-90%
Detection Accuracy

Small inductive load, speed variations

📺
Television
82-88%
🧹
Washing Machine
85-90%
💡
Lighting (Total)
80-85%
💻
Electric Iron
88-92%

Note: Accuracy improves with higher-resolution data. With 1-second sampling (available via edge processing), detection accuracy can exceed 95% for major appliances. Standard 15-minute interval data still enables 80-90% accuracy for high-consumption devices.

02 Technical Implementation

NILM Architecture

HPL Meter
→ Aggregate power data (P, Q, V, I, PF, THD)
HES
→ Data collection & forwarding to MDM
MDM + NILM
→ AI disaggregation engine processes data
Consumer App
→ Appliance-level insights delivered to user

ML Models Used

🤖 Deep Learning Approaches

  • Sequence-to-Sequence (Seq2Seq): Maps aggregate signal to appliance signals
  • Denoising Autoencoders: Extract appliance patterns from noisy aggregate
  • LSTM Networks: Capture temporal dependencies in usage
  • 1D-CNN: Detect appliance signatures in power waveforms
  • Transformer Models: State-of-the-art attention-based disaggregation
📊
Feature Extraction

Power transitions, steady-state power, reactive signatures, time-of-use patterns

🎯
Event Detection

ON/OFF events, state changes, multi-state appliances (AC speeds, washer cycles)

🚀
Continuous Learning

Models improve with more data, adapt to regional appliance variations

03 Value for Consumers

Consumer App Insights

March 2026
Energy Breakdown
342
kWh
Air Conditioner 35% (120 kWh)
Water Heater 20% (68 kWh)
Refrigerator 15% (51 kWh)
Fans & Lighting 12% (41 kWh)
Other 18% (62 kWh)

Consumer Benefits

💰
Save Money

"Your AC uses 35% of your bill. Setting it to 24°C instead of 22°C could save ₹400/month."

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Detect Problems

"Your refrigerator is running 40% more than similar models. It may need servicing."

🌱
Go Green

"You reduced AC usage by 15% this month. That's 18 kg less CO2 emissions!"

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Compare & Benchmark

"Your energy usage is 20% lower than similar homes in your area. Great job!"

04 Value for DISCOMs

⚡ Demand Side Management

  • Peak Shaving: Identify which appliances drive peaks
  • Targeted DR: Request AC setpoint changes during stress
  • Load Shifting: Incentivize water heater usage off-peak
  • Impact Measurement: Verify DSM program effectiveness

📈 Load Research

  • Load Profiles: Understand appliance mix by consumer segment
  • Seasonal Analysis: AC penetration, heater usage patterns
  • Growth Forecasting: Predict load growth from appliance adoption
  • Tariff Design: Design ToD tariffs based on appliance usage

💰 Revenue Enhancement

  • Theft Detection: AC running but low bill? Flag for investigation
  • Category Validation: Industrial load on domestic connection
  • Appliance-based Pricing: Premium services for insights
  • Energy Efficiency: Partner with appliance OEMs

05 HPL Competitive Advantage

🏆

First-Mover in India

No major Indian smart meter OEM offers NILM-based appliance disaggregation. HPL can be the first to market with this capability.

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Premium Positioning

Differentiate HPL meters as "intelligent" devices. Command premium pricing over commodity meters from competitors.

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DISCOM Value-Add

Offer DISCOMs load research & DSM capabilities they can't get elsewhere. Strengthen tender positioning.

vs. Competition

Capability Fluent Grid Esyasoft BCITS Secure Meters Genus Power HPL (with NILM)
Appliance Load Disaggregation (NILM) ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓
Consumer Appliance Insights ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓
AI Energy Saving Recommendations ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓
Faulty Appliance Detection ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓
DSM Targeting (Demand Side Mgmt) ● ● ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓
Load Research by Appliance ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓

06 Implementation Approach

OPTION A Cloud-Based NILM

Process disaggregation in cloud using interval data from MDM.

  • Data: 15/30-min interval data
  • Accuracy: 80-90% for major appliances
  • Processing: Batch (daily/hourly)
  • Cost: Lower (no meter changes)
  • Timeline: Can be added to Phase 1
Recommended for initial rollout
OPTION B Edge-Enhanced NILM

Add edge processing module for high-frequency sampling.

  • Data: 1-second sampling at edge
  • Accuracy: 92-98% for all appliances
  • Processing: Real-time at edge
  • Cost: Higher (edge hardware)
  • Timeline: Phase 2 or beyond
Future enhancement option

Recommended Roadmap

Phase 1
MDM Platform
Foundation
→
Phase 1+
Cloud NILM
Quick Win
→
Phase 2
FluxAI Analytics
Advanced AI
→
Future
Edge NILM
Premium Tier

07 Global Market Context

NILM is a proven technology deployed by leading utilities and energy companies worldwide.

🇺🇸
USA

Sense, Bidgely powering millions of homes with appliance insights

🇪🇺
Europe

E.ON, EDF using NILM for demand response programs

🇯🇵
Japan

Tokyo Electric integrating NILM with HEMS systems

🇦🇺
Australia

Origin Energy offering appliance breakdown to customers

India Opportunity: With 250 million smart meters being deployed under RDSS, and no major player offering appliance-level insights, HPL has a unique opportunity to establish leadership in this space. The first mover advantage in NILM can create a significant competitive moat.

08 Team, Timeline & Investment

Cloud-based NILM (Option A) can be developed as an add-on module to the Phase 1 MDM platform. Below is the dedicated team, timeline, and investment required.

👥 Focused NILM Team

DEDICATED Full-time on NILM
🤖
Senior ML Engineer
NILM model architecture, training & optimization
1
📊
ML / Data Engineer
Data pipelines, feature engineering, model support
1
💻
Full-Stack Developer
Backend APIs, MDM integration, Consumer app UI
1
3 Dedicated Resources
SHARED Part-time / As needed
🎯
PM + QA
Coordination, testing, accuracy validation
1
Why This Team Works
  • NILM is a focused ML problem, not a massive platform
  • Consumer app extends existing MDM app
  • Data pipeline leverages MDM infrastructure
  • 9 months provides ample development time
1 Shared Resource
4
Total Team
3
Dedicated
1
Shared
9
Months

📅 Development Timeline: 9 Months (36 Weeks)

PHASE A Initial Version Deployment (6 Months) Aligned with MDM Go-Live
Week 1-4
Discovery & Design
  • Data assessment
  • Appliance library design
  • Model architecture
Week 5-12
Model Development
  • Feature engineering
  • Model training
  • Initial accuracy tuning
Week 13-18
Integration
  • MDM integration
  • API development
  • Data pipeline setup
Week 19-24
Consumer App
  • UI development
  • Visualizations
  • Recommendations engine
Week 25-26
UAT & Go-Live
  • Testing & validation
  • Deployment
  • Initial release

✓ Milestone: Initial NILM version deployed with MDM platform. Expected accuracy: 75-85% for major appliances (AC, Water Heater, Refrigerator).

PHASE B Model Accuracy Improvement (3 Months) Post Go-Live Optimization
Week 27-29
Real-World Data Collection
  • Collect production data
  • User feedback analysis
  • Error pattern identification
Week 30-32
Model Retraining
  • Retrain with real data
  • Add new appliance signatures
  • Regional pattern learning
Week 33-35
Accuracy Optimization
  • Hyperparameter tuning
  • Ensemble methods
  • Edge case handling
Week 36
Final Release
  • Deploy optimized models
  • Documentation
  • Knowledge transfer

🎯 Target: Improved accuracy of 88-95% for major appliances after training on real HPL meter data from Indian households.

Phase A: Initial Deployment (Week 1-26)
Phase B: Accuracy (Week 27-36)
Project Start ▲ Week 26: Go-Live Week 36: Project Complete

💰 Investment

NILM Module Investment
₹45 Lakhs
AI-powered Appliance Load Disaggregation
Phase A
6 Months
Phase B
3 Months
What's Included
✓ Full source code
✓ No license fees
✓ 12-month warranty
✓ Knowledge transfer
✓ 85-95% accuracy
✓ 15+ appliances
✓ Consumer app integration
✓ DSM targeting support

09 Summary: What HPL Gets

Immediate (Phase 1+)

  • ✓ Appliance-level energy breakdown in Consumer App
  • ✓ "Your AC used X% of your bill" insights
  • ✓ Energy saving recommendations
  • ✓ Differentiated consumer experience
  • ✓ Marketing hook: "Smart meters that understand your home"

Future Enhancements

  • ✓ Real-time appliance monitoring (edge)
  • ✓ Appliance fault detection alerts
  • ✓ DISCOM DSM integration
  • ✓ Appliance-based ToD recommendations
  • ✓ OEM partnerships (appliance health data)

Ready to discuss NILM integration?

Cloud-based NILM can be added to Phase 1 MDM scope. Let's discuss during the March 10 meeting.

🔒 Confidentiality Notice

This document is confidential and proprietary to Trinesis Technologies Pvt. Ltd. It is shared exclusively with HPL Electric & Power Limited for evaluation purposes only.

Ref: TRIN/PROP/HPL/2026-03-NILM  |  Classification: Confidential

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Trinesis Technologies

Confidential Proposal